A million signatures and a Monday deadline: Democrats' speaker fight and the Hegseth impeachment set up a volatile lame-duck opening

A million signatures and a Monday deadline: Democrats' speaker fight and the Hegseth impeachment set up a volatile lame-duck opening

WASHINGTON, House Democrats swept back into power four days ago. By Saturday morning, more than a million of their own voters were demanding they hand the gavel to someone other than the man who led them there.

A Change.org petition titled "House Democrats: CHOOSE A NEW SPEAKER," launched in September by Nicole Whitted, a Democratic-supporting social media creator and author, surpassed one million signatories on Saturday as the clamor for a leadership change exploded after the party's historic midterm wins. As of Saturday afternoon the petition had 1,007,831 verified signatories, with the number still climbing.

The target of that pressure, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, is on the verge of making history as the first Black speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. He formally announced his candidacy November 4. Lawmakers nonetheless describe his hold on the job as secure. He formally announced his bid in a letter to colleagues after the election, no challenger has surfaced, and no House Democrat has voted against him for speaker since he became leader in 2022.

That gap, between the phones ringing off the hook on Capitol Hill and the near-certainty inside the caucus, is the defining tension greeting Democrats as Congress returns Monday for the lame-duck session. It opens against an already punishing agenda: a government funding deadline, an impeachment vote, a defense authorization, a farm bill, and a White House prepared to fight every inch of it.

The petition and what it can actually do

House Democrats have been swamped with phone calls and emails urging them to deny Jeffries the speaker's gavel. Much of the pressure traces to the Change.org petition urging every member of the incoming 120th Congress to vote against Jeffries in January, arguing the speaker should represent Democratic voters, "not just the Democratic establishment."

Ezra Levin, co-executive director of Indivisible, said Democrats "can't go back to business-as-usual politics." A Democratic chief of staff said many callers want Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland as speaker, though Raskin has shown no interest in running.

Actor Mark Ruffalo amplified the petition on Bluesky, and one House Democrat credited him with driving much of the outreach. Michigan Democrat William Lawrence previously told Axios, "I hope to have an alternative to Jeffries to vote for." A group of incoming progressive lawmakers informally known as "The Bloc," including Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier of New York and Melat Kiros of Colorado, is reportedly planning to use the upcoming speaker vote to extract concessions.

The math, though, runs against them. House Democrats hold 244 seats following the 2026 midterms, and as of Saturday no alternative candidate had stepped forward to challenge Jeffries, according to Politico. Jeffries needs only a simple majority of the caucus to secure the nomination. To be formally elected House speaker, he needs 218 floor votes when the new Congress convenes in January. With 244 seats, he can absorb a bloc of defections and still win.

A senior progressive put the chance of Jeffries falling short at "0.0%." Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., said he had received no calls and that "Jeffries absolutely will be speaker."

House Democrats hold leadership elections November 18 to 19, and the full House will vote for speaker when the new Congress convenes in January. The petition's most plausible effect may be as a warning to moderate Democrats: ignore the left flank's priorities and face well-funded progressive primary challengers in 2028.

Hegseth, Massie, and the first vote back

The more immediate political test arrives Monday, when both chambers of Congress are scheduled to return to Washington for the lame-duck session. Within days, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., intends to force a House floor vote on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Massie plans to force a vote on the measure the week of November 9. "I'm not sure if I would do it the night we get back, but it would be soon after we return, if he's still in the job," Massie told Roll Call.

The resolution carries eight articles of impeachment, including allegations that Hegseth violated the 1973 War Powers Resolution in his prosecution of the Iran war and acted illegally in military campaigns in Venezuela, Yemen, the Caribbean Sea, and the eastern Pacific Ocean. The 34-page resolution states that "Secretary Hegseth abused the powers entrusted to him as Secretary of Defense by subordinating the constitutional limits on the use of military force and the laws governing the conduct of hostilities to his own policy objectives."

After losing his primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District seat, Massie has only the lame-duck session to pursue the resolution. He said he gives it better than a 50 percent chance of passing. Speaker Mike Johnson recessed the House early in September to delay a vote on it. Since then, Republicans have grown even more annoyed at Hegseth's conduct, and before Democrats become the House majority after January 3, enough Republicans may join Democrats in the lame-duck session for the resolution to pass.

Hegseth is not standing down. He said he will "not back down" against a "lame duck" Congress, and that calls for his impeachment "will not work." His spokesperson said the secretary will "not back down or be deterred by politicians seeking to score partisan points," according to Axios.

Inside the White House, advisers are calculating their options. "The last thing Trump wants is a series of distracting impeachment hearings focused on Hegseth's rocky tenure," Axios reported. "Hegseth is definitely on thin ice," one Trump adviser told Axios. "It doesn't mean the president forces him out. But there are complications."

If Trump is going to replace Hegseth, there is a compelling reason to do it before January, when Democrats take the gavel and can run their own oversight hearings without Republican cooperation. Trump allies in Congress have asked the administration to remove Hegseth, though they acknowledge that even if Democrats captured 55 Senate seats, actually removing him would likely fail because it would take 12 additional votes in the 100-member chamber.

The rest of the pile

The Jeffries fight and the Hegseth vote are the most visible items on a lame-duck docket that is already overloaded. The most immediate deadline is December 11, when the current continuing resolution expires. A government shutdown is possible before the holidays if lawmakers cannot agree on a spending package.

The agenda also includes the remaining fiscal year 2027 spending bills, the National Defense Authorization Act, and the farm bill. Both stalled ahead of the midterms.

The power dynamics are strange. Republican leaders will attempt to carry out President Trump's top directives before the majority of both chambers flips. Democrats are unlikely to cooperate, knowing they will be in charge in 2027, which gives them an edge in negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump is threatening to veto anything that does not fit his agenda.

The fact that Trump needs a continuing resolution to keep many of his projects going gives Democrats leverage, even in the lame-duck session. Trump has not been one for negotiating with Congress, but he needs Congress to at least pass some defense spending to provide for normal military operations.

The lame-duck session could be the last weeks of unified Republican control of Congress and the White House, which is itself a reason for both parties to push hard, and to trust each other very little.

What to Watch

• The Hegseth floor vote timing. If the parliamentarian affirms Massie's resolution qualifies for privileged consideration, the speaker has up to two legislative days to schedule a vote. The House could then vote on the resolution or consider a motion to table it. Watch whether Johnson moves to table it quickly or lets the vote proceed.
• Republican crossovers on impeachment. Massie needs Democratic votes and at least some Republicans. At least one powerful Democrat said Massie has made "very compelling" points about the laws of war and the possibility that Hegseth violated them, which could make it tough for Democrats to do anything but support impeachment.
• Whether Trump pulls Hegseth first. An impeachment of Hegseth would double as an investigation into the conduct of the Iran war. Trump may decide to cut Hegseth loose, both to avoid that investigation and to find a handy scapegoat for the failed war.
• The Jeffries caucus vote November 18 to 19. Jeffries appears to have the speakership all but secured, with no serious challenger emerging. The vote will show whether "The Bloc" of incoming progressives turns its rhetoric into actual defections, or trades that pressure for committee assignments and policy commitments.
• December 11 shutdown clock. With Democrats disinclined to give Republicans a clean win and Trump threatening vetoes, any stopgap deal requires buy-in from both sides. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also said a debt-limit increase could come in the lame duck, another potential collision point before the calendar runs out.

Sources: Roll Call, Axios, NPR, Bloomberg, The Hill, Common Dreams/Truthout, Gray DC/WALB, Yahoo News/Axios, Al Jazeera, South China Morning Post