Pentagon war planners put the 'mother of all bombs' on the table for Iran, even as officials doubt it would work

WASHINGTON, Military planners at the Pentagon have prepared new strike packages against Iran that include the possible use of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, the largest non-nuclear weapon in the U.S. arsenal, should President Trump order a resumption of combat operations either before or after the November 3 midterm elections. That is according to multiple U.S. officials familiar with the planning, first reported by CNN's Zachary Cohen, Haley Britzky, and Kevin Liptak and published in the early hours of Thursday, October 15.

No order has been given. The White House did not confirm the existence of the plans. But the disclosure lands at a volatile moment: Trump is facing pressure to bring an end to the deeply unpopular war, as Republicans brace for potential political backlash from voters in the upcoming midterm elections and there is little indication the two countries are close to a negotiated resolution after more than six months of U.S. bombing.

What the plans say

The plans include potential use of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the MOAB or 'mother of all bombs,' according to multiple U.S. officials and people familiar with military planning. The weapon has never been used in the current conflict with Iran.

Trump has ordered the military to develop additional strike packages against Iranian targets that include 'a lot of energy infrastructure' and the potential use of a MOAB, one of the sources told CNN. The same source said the phrasing used was that this attack would come 'prior to US retrograde in CENTCOM AOR (area of responsibility),' indicating the administration could launch the additional strikes, attempt to declare victory and quickly pull everyone out.

Nuclear sites are also on the list. A second source told CNN that military plans for striking Iranian nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, also explicitly call for using the MOAB. In recent months, Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Pickaxe, where the U.S. and Israel believe Tehran has stored components of its nuclear program, even after pausing full combat operations earlier this year.

The White House declined to engage with the specifics. A White House official told CNN that the administration does not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist, adding that Trump 'keeps all options on the table' to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The internal doubts

The weapon's inclusion in strike packages does not mean planners think it would succeed. That distinction matters, and sources were blunt about it.

The 21,600-pound MOAB is designed to produce a powerful blast over a wide area rather than penetrate deeply buried targets. Sources cited by CNN questioned whether the weapon could destroy Iranian nuclear facilities protected by rock deep underground. One person familiar with the planning described it as effective for clearing a large area but 'definitely not designed as a deep penetration warhead.'

While the GPS-guided bomb is capable of destroying an area equivalent to nine city blocks, it likely lacks the capability to penetrate deep enough under the surface to destroy the suspected nuclear facilities at Pickaxe, which is believed to be fortified by layers of granite.

Some inside the building are more pointed still. A fourth source familiar with the Pentagon's recent planning discussions on Iran told CNN that military officials had developed some options that would amount to a 'fireworks show,' with the goal of providing Trump an off-ramp from the conflict even if those strikes fail to accomplish his stated goals for starting the war in the first place.

One source described the bomb as a weapon suited to clearing large areas rather than destroying specific, deeply protected targets. Its potential deployment could therefore be intended partly to demonstrate Washington's capacity to escalate the conflict and increase pressure on Tehran, rather than guarantee the destruction of a particular nuclear installation.

The pre-midterm pledge and the private uncertainty

Trump said last week that he would not order a resumption of military strikes before the midterm elections on November 3. But that public statement sits uneasily alongside the planning activity.

Although Trump publicly announced that he would not take further military action before the midterms, several advisers privately told CNN they were unsure whether that pledge was final or could change before Election Day.

The MOAB itself carries a complicated history. The 21,600-pound air-burst weapon is designed to affect surface targets over a wide area and has so far not been deployed by the U.S. in previous strikes on targets inside Iran. It was used in Afghanistan in 2017 during the previous Trump administration. That was also the first time it had ever been used in combat, against an Islamic State tunnel complex near the Pakistani border.

Context: a war without a clear exit

The CNN report arrives against a backdrop of sustained regional pressure. Houthi rebels struck a Saudi oil company building on Wednesday, according to NPR's morning news brief, and the Strait of Hormuz remains on edge. The plans come as President Trump faces pressure to bring the deeply unpopular war to a close.

Reuters confirmed the outlines of the CNN report within hours of its publication, citing the same U.S. official descriptions, though CNBC noted it had not independently confirmed the report and reached out to the Defense Department for comment. Iran Intl, Al Arabiya, and Haaretz all published their own summaries of the CNN sourcing by morning in their time zones, broadening the story's reach well beyond Washington.

On Capitol Hill, the report drew immediate attention but no formal response as of Thursday morning. The Senate Armed Services Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee have each held closed briefings on the Iran conflict in recent weeks, though neither panel released a public statement on the new reporting.

Separately, a federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked the Trump administration from penalizing two U.S.-based organizations that support the International Criminal Court's investigations into alleged war crimes in Gaza, ruling that Trump's executive order placing sanctions on the ICC violated the companies' right to free speech under the First Amendment, according to The New York Times' Francesca Regalado. That ruling adds a legal complication to the administration's use of sanctions as a foreign-policy lever at a moment when its Iran strategy is already drawing internal second-guessing.

What to Watch

• CENTCOM briefings to Congress: Watch for whether the Senate Armed Services or House Foreign Affairs committees demand a classified briefing specifically on the new strike packages, and whether any member breaks publicly from Trump's stated no-strikes-before-midterms pledge.
• Pickaxe Mountain intelligence: The U.S. and Israel's shared assessment that Iran has stored nuclear components at Pickaxe Mountain is doing a lot of work in the public justification for a MOAB option. Any public pushback from the intelligence community, or a leak of a dissenting assessment, would reframe the debate fast.
• Trump's November calculus: The language in the planning documents, 'prior to U.S. retrograde in CENTCOM AOR,' points toward a scenario where strikes accompany or precede a withdrawal declaration. Whether Trump moves before November 3 or waits until after will define the final stretch of the midterm campaign.
• The ICC sanctions ruling: The District Court injunction blocking sanctions on pro-ICC organizations is likely headed to the D.C. Circuit quickly. A stay request from DOJ could come within days.

Sources: CNN (Cohen, Britzky, Liptak) | CNBC | Iran Intl | Al Arabiya/Reuters | Just Security Early Edition | NPR | ABC News