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Democrats Flip Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina as the Fight for the Senate Goes to the Wire

James Talarico beat Ken Paxton in Texas, Roy Cooper won North Carolina and Annie Andrews pulled off an upset in South Carolina, but Democrats still fell short of the majority as Maine and Alaska counted on.

Developing (election night, Nov. 3): These are unofficial election-night projections. Control of the Senate had not been decided when this was published, and the races named below could still shift as votes are counted.

The fight for the United States Senate produced the biggest surprises of election night, and it ended Tuesday without a resolution. Democrats flipped three Republican-held seats, including one in deep-red Texas, but still came up short of the majority as the night wore on, with the decisive races left to slow counts in Maine and Alaska.

The three flips

The headline came out of Texas, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, a result that would have been hard to imagine a cycle ago and that instantly reset expectations for how far the night's shift reached.

In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper won the open Senate seat, leading Republican Michael Whatley by a comfortable margin in the early count. And in South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews unseated the Republican incumbent in what CBS News called a major upset, the kind of result that signals a national environment tilting hard in one direction.

Democrats also defended seats they needed to hold. Sen. Jon Ossoff won reelection in Georgia, and Chris Pappas kept a seat in Democratic hands in New Hampshire.

The math, and why it was still open

Here is the arithmetic that kept the chamber undecided. Republicans began the night with a 53 to 47 majority, which meant Democrats needed a net gain of four seats to take control. By late Tuesday they had flipped three. The remaining path ran through a small number of uncalled races, and the Washington Post noted that Maine was too early to call and that Alaska's count could take more than two weeks. Until those resolve, neither party can claim the Senate.

The stakes of that unresolved question are large. The Senate confirms federal judges, including any Supreme Court vacancy, and the president's cabinet and agency nominees. A Democratic Senate would give the party a check on both; a Republican hold would leave confirmations on a clear path. For a region built around the federal government, the answer is not abstract.

What to Watch

  • Maine and Alaska. These races will decide the majority. Alaska's ranked-choice count can stretch for weeks.
  • Recounts. A margin thin enough in any remaining race could trigger a recount before certification.
  • The confirmation calendar. Whoever controls the Senate sets the pace on judicial and executive nominations in the next Congress.
  • Certification. Every result is unofficial until each state certifies.

Sources