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Hunter Greene's second Tommy John surgery wipes out two seasons and clouds the Reds' future

The 27-year-old Cincinnati ace underwent a full UCL reconstruction Wednesday, and his 12-to-18-month recovery means he almost certainly won't pitch again until 2028.

Hunter Greene's second Tommy John surgery wipes out two seasons and clouds the Reds' future

The news everyone in Cincinnati had been dreading arrived Thursday morning. MLB.com confirmed that Hunter Greene underwent a full Tommy John surgery Wednesday to repair the damaged ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. Manager Terry Francona told reporters that surgeons went with the full reconstruction rather than the less invasive internal brace procedure that had been on the table. The recovery clock: 12 to 18 months. Greene, who turned 27 last week, almost certainly won't throw in a major-league game again until some point in 2028.

This is the second time he has been through it. Greene had his first Tommy John procedure in 2019 while still pitching in the minor leagues, before he had thrown a single big-league pitch. He made his MLB debut in April 2022 and has spent time on the injured list in every season since. The elbow has simply never left him alone.

The 2026 season had already been a write-off before Wednesday's surgery table. Yahoo Sports reported that Greene missed the first three months of the year recovering from arthroscopic surgery in March to remove bone chips and loose bodies from the same elbow. He returned in July and made five starts. They were rough: Bleacher Report noted he allowed at least four earned runs in three of those five outings, finishing with a 6.83 ERA across 27 and two-thirds innings. He told the training staff something still felt wrong. An MRI confirmed it. Greene then flew to Los Angeles to consult with orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, according to Yahoo Sports, before the team announced surgery was unavoidable.

The timing stings because of what the two seasons just before this wreckage looked like. From 2024 through 2025, Greene posted a 2.76 ERA over 45 starts, racking up 301 strikeouts in 258 innings. He made the National League All-Star team in 2024 and finished eighth in Cy Young voting. For a stretch, he looked like one of the five or six best starters in the National League. The Reds signed him to a six-year, $53 million extension in 2023, a deal that runs through 2028 with a club option for 2029. That contract, once a bargain, now reads as a painful ledger of innings that may never happen.

For Cincinnati, the organizational math is brutal. As Yahoo Sports pointed out, the richest free-agent deals in Reds franchise history are a pair of four-year, $64 million contracts. This is not a franchise that absorbs roster setbacks by writing a check for a replacement. Cincinnati enters the weekend at 57-62, sitting 5.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. The playoff chase was already a long shot. Without Greene, Chase Burns carries the rotation alone, and the path to October gets narrower by the day.

The broader baseball conversation around second Tommy John surgeries is not encouraging. Yahoo Sports flagged the split outcomes for pitchers who go through the procedure twice: Jacob deGrom came back and dominated; Walker Buehler has not been the same pitcher. Greene's path likely lands somewhere in that range, and nobody can say where until he's actually healthy and throwing again, probably two full years from now.

The Washington Post reported Thursday that Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall acknowledged the surgery could not be confirmed as a full Tommy John until the doctors were already inside the elbow. 'Both said when you go in there, you're going to find out what it is and then go from there,' Krall told reporters, according to MLB.com. That uncertainty lasted until Wednesday afternoon on the operating table. The answer, unfortunately for Greene and Cincinnati, was the harder one.

Greene was drafted second overall by the Reds in 2017 out of Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, California. Since his MLB debut in 2022, he has spent time on the injured list every single season. A right-hander who touches triple digits with a slider that buckles hitters, he has never had the chance to give Cincinnati a full, uninterrupted year. The next chance, at the earliest, is April 2028.

Sources