Washington, DC/--°
Updating
Subscribe free
National Sports

Kyle Larson goes for a third Cup title at Homestead, and barely anyone can stop him

NASCAR's season finale lands at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday for the first time in seven years, and Kyle Larson needs just nine points to clinch his third championship.

Kyle Larson goes for a third Cup title at Homestead, and barely anyone can stop him

HOMESTEAD, Fla., The green flag drops at 3:13 p.m. ET on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and barring something genuinely catastrophic, Kyle Larson will walk away with a third NASCAR Cup Series championship before sunset.

The math is almost comically simple. Larson enters Sunday's finale with a 67-point advantage over Christopher Bell and 70 over Denny Hamlin, the only two drivers still alive in the Chase. Nine points clinches it. A top-three finish in Stage 1 alone gets him there. He has never scored fewer than 18 points in 12 career Homestead starts. Nine points, in that context, is essentially automatic.

Racing Insights, NASCAR's own data analytics firm, put Larson's championship probability at 99.4% heading into the weekend. Bell was at 0.4%, Hamlin at 0.2%. Those are not odds. Those are formalities on paper.

Back at Homestead, where it started

There is a certain symmetry to this. Homestead-Miami Speedway has returned to the season finale slot for the first time since 2019, reclaiming the championship weekend it held from 2002 to 2019 before Phoenix Raceway took over. Larson won at Homestead in March 2025, so he already knows this 1.5-mile South Florida oval in its current configuration.

If Larson wins the title on Sunday, he becomes the first back-to-back Cup Series champion since Jimmie Johnson won five consecutive titles from 2006 to 2010. He already has rings from 2021 and 2025. A third puts him in a conversation that has only a handful of names in it.

Larson, the 34-year-old Elk Grove, California native, started fourth on the grid after Joe Gibbs Racing's Chase Briscoe stole the pole in qualifying Friday with a lap of 166.687 mph, edging his JGR teammate Hamlin by just 0.017 seconds. Larson said after qualifying he wasn't entirely satisfied with his lap, suggesting the No. 5 Hendrick Chevrolet had more in it.

Bell and Hamlin need miracles, not just wins

To be fair to both Bell and Hamlin, winning the championship in this scenario is not simply a matter of winning the race. The points gap is too wide for that.

Bell, in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Toyota, would need Larson to finish 32nd or worse and score zero stage points while Bell wins the race outright. Hamlin, a three-time Homestead winner, needs an even more improbable sequence of events. Hamlin's experience at this track is real, three wins here is genuine pedigree, but experience does not manufacture a 70-point swing in 267 laps on command.

What makes the scenario remotely interesting: NASCAR races at 1.5-mile ovals produce crashes, fuel strategy gambles, and mechanical failures at a higher rate than the sport's short tracks. Homestead's smooth asphalt tends to generate single-file racing late in runs, which compresses the field on restarts and creates the kind of late-race chaos that swallows leaders. Larson knows this. His team at Hendrick Motorsports knows this. They will be conservative early and aggressive only when they have to be.

A championship weekend, top to bottom

The Cup finale is not the only story at Homestead this weekend. Kaden Honeycutt won Thursday night's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship race, passing Christian Eckes for the lead during a late restart to claim the Truck title for 2026. In Saturday night's O'Reilly Auto Parts Series finale, Justin Allgaier secured the series championship by 14 points over Jesse Love, with Brandon Jones winning the race itself after a late battle with Carson Kvapil.

Three series, three champions in one weekend. The Cup title is the last piece.

What Sunday looks like

The race covers 267 laps and 400.5 miles on the 1.5-mile oval, with stages ending at Laps 80 and 165. NBC and Peacock carry the broadcast, with pre-race coverage from 2 p.m. ET. MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio handle audio.

Larson does not need to win the race. He does not need to lead a lap. He needs nine points and a functioning car. For a driver who has finished outside the top 18 at Homestead exactly zero times in his career there, that is about as close to a sure thing as motor racing allows.

Bell will push. Hamlin will push. And somewhere around Lap 80, when the first stage ends and the points update ticks across the leaderboard, the question everyone is really watching for will likely have its answer.

Sources