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MLB's final weekend is a mess, and somebody is about to make history for all the wrong reasons

Four teams are still fighting for two playoff spots, the Phillies are suddenly on thin ice against a six-game winning streak Arizona squad, and the AL West is about to crown its first-ever sub-.500 division champion. Oh, and Yordan Alvarez still has a shot at the Triple Crown.

MLB's final weekend is a mess, and somebody is about to make history for all the wrong reasons

Two days left. Four teams still desperate. And at least one of them is going to do something that has never happened in 150 years of Major League Baseball.

According to MLB.com, the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers enter Saturday tied atop the American League West, with Houston holding the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series. The AL West will see a sub-.500 team take the division title for the first time ever, an ignominious record as both teams limp toward the finish line. That's not hyperbole. It's entirely possible the AL West will provide baseball with the first team ever to make the playoffs with a losing record. The Astros prevailed in the season series over the Rangers, so if the two teams wind up tied in the standings, Houston will win the flag. It's win-or-go-home for both teams this weekend.

Think about that for a second. The Houston Astros, a franchise that went to four World Series in six years, might clinch a division title at 79-83 or 80-82. The Rangers, same story. One of them is going to be a playoff team. One of them probably shouldn't be.

The National League side is just as jagged. The Phillies currently hold the third NL Wild Card spot, while the Diamondbacks trail by two games with three games remaining. Philadelphia closes the regular season against the Tampa Bay Rays, and Arizona finishes against the San Diego Padres. On paper, the Phillies control their own fate. In practice, they've looked shaky for two weeks. Momentum favors the Diamondbacks. Arizona enters the final weekend on a five-game winning streak, while Philadelphia has dropped its last two games.

Here is the gut punch for Phillies fans: if the Phillies and Diamondbacks finish tied for the final NL Wild Card berth, the Diamondbacks would advance to the postseason, and the Phillies would head home to the City of Brotherly Love. Arizona holds the divisional tiebreaker. So Philadelphia cannot afford even a single slip. Freddy Peralta kept the Phillies off the board on Friday, helping Tampa Bay win 2-0, which means the margin just got thinner still heading into the final weekend.

Meanwhile, the Cubs and Padres locked in their spots Thursday, and Friday brought its own chaos. The Red Sox swept a doubleheader in Boston on September 25, necessitated by a nor'easter that will hit the New England and Mid-Atlantic area this weekend. With Boston's win over the Cubs in Game 1 of their doubleheader, the Red Sox secured the No. 5 seed in the American League playoffs and will be the road team against the Yankees in the Wild Card. The third and final game of the Boston-Chicago series will be a neutral-site contest on September 27 at Tropicana Field. A major league game at a neutral site, in a stadium that Tampa Bay is leaving, to finish a series moved because of a nor'easter. September baseball, folks.

On the AL Central front, the Guardians and White Sox are still sorting out who will enter the postseason as the AL Central champion and who goes in as a wild card team. The stakes are significant because the eventual AL Central champion will get the second and final first-round bye on the AL side. The Chicago White Sox clinched a playoff spot on Thursday, making them perhaps the most shocking playoff team since the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.

Alvarez and a Triple Crown that could slip away

Woven through all of this is the individual story that keeps refusing to go away. Yordan Alvarez, the Astros' 29-year-old left-handed slugger from Las Tunas, Cuba, is chasing one of baseball's rarest achievements. Alvarez is batting .314 with a major-league best 1.032 OPS, 41 home runs, 102 RBI, 99 runs scored and 32 doubles over 153 contests.

Alvarez is making a rare bid for the MLB Triple Crown, an elusive feat achieved by only ten players in history, most recently Miguel Cabrera in 2012. The problem is Pete Alonso. Alonso's 17 RBI in September have pushed him up to 108 with five games remaining, which is a gap Alvarez realistically cannot close. Alvarez will need a strong close to win the Triple Crown. He still leads the AL in average and is tied for the lead in home runs, but his RBI pace has fallen off this month.

In the background over the last few days of the season: Alvarez's push to become the first player to win a Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2013 has captured attention well beyond the AL West standings fight. The Triple Crown would speak for itself, but the context of baseball in 2026 must be considered: nobody in the AL is close to Alvarez. Entering Sunday, he had created 138 runs, 35 more than Caminero and Alonso.

ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez, who played 13 seasons in the majors, put Alvarez's season in perspective ahead of Friday's action. Perez said: "What makes Yordan so dominant is that there really isn't a comfortable way to pitch him."

Although Alvarez has had top-three finishes in MVP voting before, 2026 is the best he has ever looked. Injuries cut his season short a number of times, but at 29, Alvarez is putting on a display that could lead to a feat that is about as rare as anything in baseball: a Triple Crown.

The Astros close the regular season at home. Whether they win the AL West outright, or arrive in October as a division champion with a losing record, or miss everything entirely, Alvarez's numbers will still be the first thing anyone looks at. On an individual front, potential AL MVP frontrunner Yordan Alvarez remains, barely, alive in his bid to win the Triple Crown.

What happens Sunday

The Astros and Rangers are fighting for the American League West, while the Phillies and D-backs are competing for the final National League Wild Card berth, with just two days remaining in the regular season. The postseason field goes to 12 teams. The postseason begins September 29. Two spots are empty heading into Saturday.

For Philadelphia, the math is simple and brutal: win all three against the Rays, or watch the Diamondbacks back in through the side door. For Arizona, it means sweeping a San Diego team that is still fighting for its own seeding against the Cubs. Arizona must win to have any chance of reaching the postseason, but facing the Padres won't be easy. San Diego is trying to hold onto the top NL Wild Card spot ahead of the Cubs.

And out in the AL West, somewhere between West Sacramento and Houston, two teams with losing records are about to settle who gets the privilege of hosting a Wild Card series. The Rangers would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker to the Astros if the two clubs finish tied atop the AL West. Texas needs to win outright. So does Houston. So do the Phillies. And somehow Arizona, on a six-game winning streak, actually has the tiebreaker in its pocket if it can just catch Philadelphia.

Alvarez, meanwhile, goes into Saturday at Minute Maid Park still holding a .314 average and 41 home runs, staring at a six-RBI deficit in the race for a feat nobody has pulled off in 14 years.

Sources