Trump says Iran war ends 'very soon' as Hormuz tankers burn and the pre-election strike pause runs out Sunday

President Donald Trump told a Kansas City radio station and White House reporters on Thursday that the eight-month-old war with Iran will end "very soon," even as multiple oil tankers burned or struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz and his own administration's self-imposed ban on new U.S. airstrikes ticks toward expiration on November 3, Election Day.

The timing is not subtle. Three days before midterm voters go to the polls, the most consequential open question in American foreign policy will land on the same morning they cast ballots: whether Trump, once freed from his pledge not to strike before the election, resumes full-scale military operations or accepts a negotiated pause.

What Trump said, and what happened overnight

Speaking at the White House, Trump told reporters "there are talks, they want to talk, they keep talking," and in a separate Kansas City radio interview said the eight-month-old conflict would end "very soon." He did not specify terms, timelines, or whether a deal was close.

He added: "And one way or the other, it's going to end very soon."

That same day the Strait of Hormuz was anything but quiet. Iran said it had struck an "enemy" unmanned surface vehicle east of the Strait of Hormuz, and that several "violating" oil tankers caught fire in separate incidents in the waterway. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two tankers, one east of the strait and one west, were stopped in the strait's southern waters after seeking to cross through an "unauthorized" route. A supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels of oil also exploded and caught fire after hitting naval mines.

October saw the highest monthly number of reported maritime incidents in the Strait of Hormuz region since the conflict began, according to data from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency.

Oil markets respond immediately

Oil prices rose more than 3 percent on Friday, putting Brent crude on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain, as traders braced for a potential escalation in the U.S.-Iran war following next week's midterm elections. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to $114.12 a barrel as of late Friday morning.

Oil companies are reporting another quarter of sky-high profits, largely due to the war in Iran disrupting the global oil supply. Less oil is moving through the Middle East, so oil in other parts of the world has become much more valuable. Brent crude is now trading around $113 a barrel; before the war began, it was about $70.

BP on Friday reported its highest quarterly profit in 18 years, driven by the Middle East conflict, which has pushed up oil and gas margins.

The economic strain on American households is documented. The Iran war is costing the average American household $2,000 in additional costs, according to Moody's Analytics. The conflict has kept diesel, crude oil, and gas prices high, and inflation is eating up pay hikes.

The moratorium clock and what comes after

Trump announced on October 8 that no American strikes would target Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, a moratorium that gave diplomacy a defined window. That window closes in 72 hours.

Even as limpet mines struck oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, two diplomats told the Associated Press on Thursday that Trump had not yet made a final decision on post-moratorium military action.

The Israeli Defense Forces and the United States military have drawn up plans to renew joint strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, according to two Israeli sources familiar with the plans. Those sources said the strikes would almost certainly take place after the U.S. midterm elections, citing Trump's reluctance to further destabilize oil markets in the final days of the campaign.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is firmly in favor of renewed action against Iran, but both sources said the decision for joint strikes to resume is "only for Trump to decide."

Trump has said he was deciding whether to "make a deal" with Iran or "finish it off." "Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" he said last week.

Ryan McDaniel, president of Duncan Oil Company, said fears of U.S. strikes on Iran are "keeping supply risk premiums elevated despite earlier diplomatic outreach efforts." Trump said on Friday he believed the war with Iran, which has entered its ninth month, will end soon, without giving details on how.

Congress in recess, but the pressure is real

Both chambers are in pre-election recess and have not voted on any authorization for the war. The constitutional fight over war powers has run parallel to the military campaign since February, when Trump launched what his administration called Operation Epic Fury without a congressional declaration or authorization.

Sen. Mazie Hirono said: "The President's unilateral decision to strike Iran for purposes of regime change is a clear violation of the Constitution, which gives Congress, not the President, the sole power to declare war."

The Iran war is making the election harder for the Republican Party. Americans may vote against the party that owns the war, but their votes would not immediately change who controls military decisions. The election could reject the war politically while leaving Trump free to expand it militarily.

The War Powers Resolution offers some restraint, but not enough to prevent an opening attack. It requires the president to report the use of U.S. forces in hostilities within 48 hours and sets a timetable for ending an operation that Congress has not authorized. In practice, this gives Congress a way to contest a campaign after it begins.

Former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt offered the administration's read of the political damage. Leavitt said on Friday that Trump has been "very upfront" with Americans about the impact the war with Iran is having on fuel prices, calling the increase a "short-term consequence." "Of course, he's been very upfront with voters in Iowa and all across the country about what the war in Iran is doing," she said.

Analysts watching the markets are less sanguine. Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler, said: "It appears Iran is attempting to keep oil prices high ahead of the midterm elections, and the best way to do this has been to increase attacks, both from themselves and via the Houthis."

Hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps view the Hormuz mine campaign as vindication of their approach, according to Ynetnews reporting on October 31, and believe the tanker strikes have strengthened Iran's hand at the table.

Iran signals, hedges

An Iranian official told The National that his country "welcomes any efforts aimed at negotiations, talks or collective consultation." Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan are pursuing diplomatic efforts with Tehran as the region braces for the possibility of renewed U.S.-Israeli strikes.

Iran has been awaiting a definitive U.S. response to its proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran previously saying it would not soften its conditions.

The question of whether to accept terms before or after the moratorium expires has become the central fault line between Iranian factions, with reformists warning that a post-November 3 strike campaign could destroy what remains of Iran's energy and nuclear infrastructure.

What to Watch

• November 3 moratorium expiry. Trump told the White House pool on Thursday that the U.S. has "time, frankly" to reach a deal with Iran, leaving open whether he meant time for diplomacy or time before military action, with the self-imposed moratorium expiring Sunday. Any post-election announcement of resumed strikes would move oil markets before vote counts are finalized.
• Brent crude trajectory. For the month of October, Brent crude was on track to finish nearly 14 percent higher than at the end of September. A fifth consecutive monthly gain would set a post-2022 record.
• Congressional war powers. If Democrats retake either chamber, leadership has pledged to move a War Powers Resolution requiring Trump to seek authorization within 30 days of any resumed campaign. Democratic control of both chambers would make a prolonged war harder to sustain; Congress could investigate the administration, subpoena officials, expose the real military and financial costs, and attach conditions to future funding.
• Hormuz shipping data. Over the past seven days, oil and fuel transits through the strait have fallen to 54 percent of their pre-war levels, according to Kpler. Watch whether that figure moves in either direction after Election Day.
• The Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Global oil reserves are at lower levels due to the duration of the conflict. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at low levels, and Europe has also released crude oil and diesel from its stores. The White House has limited remaining buffer to blunt any new price spike.

Sources: House of Saud / AP | Fox News live blog | ABC News | Al-Monitor | The National | NPR | CNBC | CNN | The Washington Post | Middle East Monitor | Rep. Gottheimer press release, congress.gov