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On the eve of the midterms, a Democratic defection in Michigan shakes the Senate map

Rep. Haley Stevens crossed party lines Sunday to back Republican Mike Rogers, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called it a 'despicable betrayal,' and Trump made his closing argument at a still-closed Reflecting Pool, all with 54 million ballots already cast and Congress's control on the line.

Less than 48 hours before polls open Tuesday, a Democratic congresswoman walked into a Detroit church and walked out standing next to the Republican she had spent months opposing. The move by Rep. Haley Stevens upended the already tight Michigan Senate race, enraged party leaders from Washington to Lansing, and handed President Trump a gift he immediately amplified on social media, all on the same afternoon Trump was preparing his own show at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.

The scene crystallized just how unsettled the national political landscape is on the eve of an election that will determine whether Republicans hold both chambers, or whether Democrats win back enough seats to block Trump's agenda, launch investigations into his administration, and reshape the final two years of his second term.

Stevens stuns Michigan Democrats

Stevens endorsed GOP Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers over her former primary rival Abdul El-Sayed less than 48 hours before Election Day. She had been scheduled to attend a unity event with El-Sayed, who beat her in the Democratic primary. Instead, she endorsed his Republican opponent.

"Abdul said I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away, and he's right," Stevens said in a video posted to social media Sunday. "And that's why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the U.S. Senate today."

The rupture had been building for days. The dispute escalated last week after Stevens' fiance, Jason Turkish, announced he would vote for Rogers. Stevens' appearance with Rogers was arranged at the last minute after the two spoke Sunday morning. She told Rogers she remained a Democrat and believed the party would still win a Senate majority.

Democrats did not take it calmly. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., called it a "despicable betrayal." DNC Chair Ken Martin said Stevens' "disappointing decision to endorse Mike Rogers, a Trump ally who would join Republican efforts to sell out working families, is a betrayal of the values of the Democratic Party." Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel charged that Rogers "has repeatedly sold out Michigan's working class, wants to pass a national abortion ban, and has pledged to be a loyal vote for Trump's agenda."

Trump moved fast. On his social media platform, Trump wrote that Stevens was "a Highly Respected Democrat, who narrowly lost in the Primary to Abdul Mohamed El-Sayed" and who had been "breathlessly wined and dined by the Dumocrats" to help Rogers' opponent, and then endorsed Rogers anyway. At his Iowa rally Sunday, Trump invited Stevens to join the Republican Party.

The Michigan seat is one Democrats cannot afford to lose. Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994. As one of two Democratic-held Senate seats in a state won by Trump in 2024, Michigan is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026. El-Sayed, a former public health official, could become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate.

The Reflecting Pool backdrop

Trump chose to stage his formal closing argument not at an arena but on federal property in Washington. The president delivered a closing midterm election message at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Monday, a White House official told Axios. He was scheduled to speak at 2 p.m. ET and planned to discuss the accomplishments of his administration and congressional Republicans.

The setting carried its own complications. The National Park Service announced last month that the Reflecting Pool would remain closed to visitors until November 20 amid ongoing restoration work. Trump moved to have the Reflecting Pool renovated over the summer, but after the project was declared complete, the pool's lining began peeling up and the water turned green with algae, prompting the pool to close again.

Trump has repeatedly blamed vandals, but the office of U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, former Fox News host Jeanine Pirro, said the problems were caused by shoddy workmanship. In comments Sunday, Trump continued to insist the pool "was vandalized badly." That prompted Trump to fume that Pirro "choked," and that he was "disappointed with Jeanine Pirro, really disappointed."

Several of Trump's advisers urged him not to focus on his Washington construction projects in the lead-up to the midterm elections. He proceeded anyway. For his closing argument, Trump chose a speech in Washington at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, a landmark that has become synonymous with his controversial drive to redevelop the U.S. capital.

Where the map stands heading into Tuesday

The stakes are direct: losing either chamber would let Democrats block Trump's agenda for his final two years in office and launch investigations of an administration that has so far faced largely compliant Republican majorities.

The final polling gives Democrats reason for optimism, though not certainty. Democrats hold leads in five of the seven critical Senate races polled by the New York Times and Siena University as the 2026 midterm campaign comes to a close. Should those results hold, Democratic victories in the four Republican-held states where they lead outside the margin of sampling error would be enough to flip control of the Senate, if Democrats also hold all of their currently held seats.

Individual races remain razor-close. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 50% to 49% in a YouGov poll updated November 1. In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 to 47% in YouGov's latest poll, also updated November 1. In Nebraska, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn are locked in a 49%-49% tie. In South Carolina, Republican Sen. Darline Graham is tied with Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews at 48% each in a Times/Siena survey, while Graham leads 43% to 39% in a Citadel poll updated October 28.

On the House side, Fox News Power Rankings put the Democratic floor at 223 seats, suggesting Democrats are likely to flip the chamber. Polling suggests Democrats are in a strong position to win a majority in the House, but the battle for Senate control remains a toss-up.

Early turnout has been extraordinary. More than 54 million people have cast a ballot amid a surge in early voting. That figure is a record for a midterm and up from nearly 46 million who voted before Election Day in 2022, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab. Early voting increased by more than 30 percent compared with the same period in 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Kansas, according to an AP analysis.

Trump wrapped 28 campaign stops Sunday night in Salina, Kansas. The president rallied before a friendly crowd at the Salina airport and grew wistful as he closed his final midterm campaign as president. In Iowa earlier that day, he stumped for Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson; in Kansas he campaigned with Sen. Roger Marshall. Marshall faces an unexpectedly close race against Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932.

What to Watch

  • Michigan Senate count: Whether Stevens' endorsement of Rogers moves any measurable share of suburban Detroit and Jewish voters away from El-Sayed. Her staff resigned in protest Sunday, and the DNC's reaction suggests the national party sees real downside risk.
  • Senate tipping-point races: Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, and South Carolina are all polling within or near the margin of error. If Democrats hold their own seats and flip even three of the four Republican-held seats where the Times/Siena surveys show leads, control shifts.
  • Reflecting Pool fallout: The NPS closure order runs through November 20. Whether Monday's speech is followed by an expedited reopening, or another round of repair announcements, will be an early post-election signal about how the White House manages its D.C. renovation legacy.
  • Democratic investigation agenda: Democrats are gearing up to launch probes into Trump's family finances, his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, D.C. construction projects, and Elon Musk if they take either chamber. Watch which committee chair slots party leaders announce in the days after the count.
  • Election certification: Given prior reporting in this series on DOJ's ballot-counting interventions and Attorney General Blanche's certification statements, watch for any immediate legal challenges filed late Tuesday or Wednesday as results come in from Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Sources: NPR | Axios | The Washington Post | CNBC | CNN | NBC News | Forbes | Axios | NBC News | PBS NewsHour/AP | Yahoo News/Forbes | Fox News Power Rankings